Point-of-care diagnostics and the flu

I am enamored of the point-of-care (POC) diagnostics market. It is clear that these tests bring benefits to patients, physicians and managed care. Influenza A H1N1 (apparently, the pork industry does is not fond of the swine flu label) may open a huge opportunity for rapid testing for flu.

Quidel Corporation (NASDAQ GS: QDEL) manufactures and markets a rapid (less than 10 minutes from swab to results) diagnostic kit for Influenza A and B (and differentiates between the two). As Quidel states, they are not sure if it detects the swine flu strain. The test should be used for any patients that present with influenza symptoms, because a positive result may rule out other types of infections (and should involve contacting a local health department), although a negative result (if the test does not identify the swine flu type) may not rule out the disease.

At this time, Quidel’s test is the only one on the market (as far as I am able to ascertain). I expect sales of the product may increase substantially over the next few months, if the swine flu continues to be an issue that stays in the forefront of the news. I’m going to do some analysis to determine if the numbers support my subjective thoughts.

Full disclosure:
I don’t own Quidel stock, I don’t work for Quidel, and I do not stand to profit from Quidel. In other words, I just think they have a good product that will meet a market need over the next few months.

By
Michael W Simpson


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